What direction are Trump's policy decisions taking this year?

Global Application and Rationale: In April 2025, Trump instituted a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods, followed by higher, personalized tariffs on countries with the largest trade surpluses with the U.S. . The stated goals are to protect American manufacturing, counter unfair trade practices, and reduce the long-standing U.S. trade deficit . This approach is framed as a "Golden Rule" in trade, demanding that other countries treat the U.S. as they themselves wish to be treated .

Targeted Tariffs on Specific Sectors and Nations: The administration has also levied tailored tariffs against specific countries and industries:

China: Faced a 20% tariff, cited as a response to issues within the supply chain for synthetic opioids .

Other Nations: Mexico (25%), Canada (35%), Brazil (40%), and India (25%) have also been subject to tariffs for various reasons, including illicit drug flows and purchases of Russian oil .

Key Industries: Broad tariffs have been applied based on "Section 232" to protect critical industries like automobiles and parts, copper, steel, and aluminum . Furthermore, new tariffs have been announced for heavy-duty trucks (25%), upholstered furniture (30%), and kitchen and bathroom cabinets (50%) . A notable 100% tariff on all branded pharmaceutical products took effect in October 2025, though it includes a waiver for companies that build manufacturing plants in the U.S. .

Dynamic Adjustments and Exemptions: The tariff policy is not static. The U.S. government adjusted its list in September 2025, granting exemptions for critical inputs like precious metals, key minerals, and some pharmaceuticals, while removing exemptions for others such as aluminum hydroxide, resins, and silicon products . This indicates a strategic effort to shield certain sensitive supply chains from tariff impacts.

🤖 Ambitious AI Development Strategy

In July 2025, the Trump administration released the "AI Action Plan," which outlines a comprehensive strategy to secure U.S. dominance in artificial intelligence . The plan is built on three core pillars:

Accelerating AI Innovation: This involves deregulating the domestic industry by streamlining or eliminating federal regulations that are perceived as hindrances to AI development . The government also aims to foster a workforce skilled in AI and ensure that AI systems used by the federal government are "objective and free from top-down ideology" .

Building U.S. AI Infrastructure: The plan calls for accelerating the construction of essential AI infrastructure, such as data centers and semiconductor manufacturing facilities, by simplifying permitting processes . It also emphasizes ensuring a sufficient and affordable energy supply to power these future needs .

Leading International AI Diplomacy and Security: A key external element is to counter China's influence in international governance bodies and set global AI standards that reflect American values . The U.S. intends to become an "AI export powerhouse," offering its technology stack—including hardware, models, and software—to allies to prevent their reliance on Chinese technology . Concurrently, the plan seeks to further tighten export controls on advanced AI chips to China and close any existing loopholes in the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain .

🛠 Pursuing Bilateral Trade Deals

Alongside tariffs, the administration is actively pursuing bilateral trade agreements with various partners, moving away from multilateral frameworks. For instance, deals have been announced with the EU, Japan, and the UK, which often involve commitments from these partners to purchase U.S. energy, open their markets, or make investments in the United States . This approach is presented as creating a more "fair and reciprocal" global trade system .

In summary, the direction of Trump's policy decisions in 2025 reflects a consistent theme of "America First," implemented through aggressive unilateral trade measures and a strategic focus on winning the technological competition, particularly in AI. These policies are fundamentally shaped by the perception of intense competition with China and a preference for bilateral negotiations over multilateral cooperation.